Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.339505 3.171366 4.340270 6.157937 9.020010e+00 13.553056 2.172719e+01
2025-02-23 1.418962 2.186345 3.465894 5.913790 1.091208e+01 21.865708 5.242037e+01
2025-03-02 0.905903 1.531786 2.718641 5.401821 1.228516e+01 33.047992 1.294454e+02
2025-03-09 0.675467 1.248472 2.482325 5.807551 1.688946e+01 67.584180 6.144886e+02
2025-03-16 0.513318 1.022415 2.246161 6.123085 2.294794e+01 148.830571 6.058462e+03
2025-03-23 0.409697 0.874580 2.115667 6.746260 3.371856e+01 427.687036 2.236998e+06
2025-03-30 0.331043 0.750157 1.977929 7.317523 4.955383e+01 1572.614615 NaN
2025-04-06 0.257988 0.608840 1.705162 7.036564 6.093338e+01 5233.705430 NaN
2025-04-13 0.201183 0.489292 1.434391 6.448965 6.879122e+01 18673.878960 NaN
2025-04-20 0.170085 0.430748 1.344553 6.831548 1.008558e+02 620536.722268 NaN
2025-04-27 0.150231 0.397853 1.333396 7.835054 1.790178e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.134002 0.369968 1.327317 9.030618 3.437568e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.115738 0.330167 1.251176 9.631539 6.051686e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.097318 0.283187 1.110025 9.246702 8.360010e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.081177 0.239146 0.957478 8.390066 9.791056e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.072500 0.219642 0.923306 9.119865 2.119983e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.064717 0.200820 0.880832 9.697240 4.833181e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.058961 0.187931 0.865134 10.828807 1.733011e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.053709 0.175271 0.842468 11.882436 8.874763e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.047406 0.156276 0.765412 11.387945 2.200176e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.041508 0.137438 0.678708 10.339887 3.315943e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.038156 0.128614 0.656776 11.040154 9.340845e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.035999 0.124345 0.665249 12.889060 NaN NaN NaN